Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 75868.619051 80141.131112 84416.658354 89013.183857 93811.951889 98670.975463 103959.838673
2026-01-11 68948.773919 75461.358536 82163.339946 89566.299235 97504.812262 105752.580265 114959.941410
2026-01-18 63729.941848 71749.023757 80186.111052 89705.524406 100127.742203 111171.818759 123739.907420
2026-01-25 59746.055054 68885.843854 78682.390519 89932.438388 102462.038030 115955.216247 131551.466069
2026-02-01 56286.847111 66280.402858 77168.875229 89867.329679 104221.777610 119896.674416 138258.065996
2026-02-08 53846.870780 64612.313814 76513.855338 90584.363264 106698.631790 124510.120176 145617.261068
2026-02-15 51280.068232 62628.529081 75346.540842 90574.024647 108224.708120 127953.176528 151580.710175
2026-02-22 49749.910848 61737.383034 75337.289707 91806.607330 111102.866209 132884.967853 159216.899152
2026-03-01 48149.212935 60666.725714 75034.387736 92621.168292 113435.908171 137150.690605 166069.885747
2026-03-08 46205.472562 59092.066019 74052.739510 92557.528303 114673.996056 140097.781174 171361.498558
2026-03-15 44614.282342 57867.510685 73419.995312 92846.251166 116277.264556 143436.934617 177095.475528
2026-03-22 43737.181529 57466.270370 73735.792388 94239.366846 119175.122808 148296.229112 184637.943385
2026-03-29 42681.501040 56814.916521 73729.810447 95238.031011 121612.778294 152645.071807 191640.862727
2026-04-05 41508.423093 55971.461365 73450.601404 95872.589363 123591.630498 156444.184255 198006.590094
2026-04-12 40178.543783 54879.039116 72818.142907 96031.137081 124958.119540 159488.517299 203462.776933
2026-04-19 38970.946070 53896.918446 72282.631520 96273.608145 126400.024258 162609.124440 209012.211800
2026-04-26 37690.282595 52775.046629 71529.728408 96205.361770 127425.989537 165202.877706 213913.870224
2026-05-03 36856.275573 52203.220961 71448.552306 96963.508164 129470.441837 169046.257284 220364.424148
2026-05-10 35728.066574 51206.338502 70788.267337 96952.609396 130522.967126 171649.466387 225282.943955
2026-05-17 35226.162108 51020.750441 71160.051420 98255.503671 133237.797781 176330.264852 232809.285414
2026-05-24 34564.386655 50596.921611 71201.739176 99116.430222 135382.069637 180301.444826 239469.088676
2026-05-31 33551.287353 49666.527986 70550.289241 99049.171034 136315.878066 182739.989511 244207.188659
2026-06-07 32735.588324 48979.920842 70198.259207 99354.311506 137716.534909 185764.348661 249692.742183